Usually I write about the comic nature and the ridiculousness of the presidential campaign, but this week the biggest political news took a sobering turn, when a rogue soldier apparently murdered 16 civilians in the southern province of Kandahar. While it is inappropriate to judge whether the accused soldier did in fact murder and burn so many civilians(thats for the military justice system to decide), it is appropriate to ask whether or not the mission is 1.) Worth it, and 2.) doable.
While I still believe that the mission is worth it, the seemingly endless mistakes by the NATO-led coalition make a difficult situation even more complex. I believe staying in Afghanistan until there can be a steady and methodical transition to Afghan forces is the best way to ensure regional stability. If the United States were to pack up and leave tomorrow, Afghanistan would collapse and the bloodletting between the warlords in the country would be extreme. This would not bode well for the extremely unstable state of Pakistan, which is reputed to have over 100 nuclear weapons. Pakistan collapsing from a spillover of violence from Afghanistan where its WMD fall into the hands of terrorists would be THE nightmare scenario for the United States. The US should take all necessary steps to ensure this does not happen.
This leads to the question of whether or not the mission is doable. With the time constraints that the Obama administration has put on the combat mission, I don't think that it is. The timetable was officially pushed forward in the last few months, from 2014 to the middle of 2013. Whether it is a little over a year or two years, the time span is simply not long enough to stabilize Afghanistan. With this year being an election year, the administration will not want bad news from the war to have any influence over the President's reelection chances. The administration's main priority is seeking to find the least-bad way out of a terrible situation.
Looks like some more tough luck for the Afghans for the indefinite future.
Sources:
Pakistan nightmare scenario
Obama sticks to his timetable
While I still believe that the mission is worth it, the seemingly endless mistakes by the NATO-led coalition make a difficult situation even more complex. I believe staying in Afghanistan until there can be a steady and methodical transition to Afghan forces is the best way to ensure regional stability. If the United States were to pack up and leave tomorrow, Afghanistan would collapse and the bloodletting between the warlords in the country would be extreme. This would not bode well for the extremely unstable state of Pakistan, which is reputed to have over 100 nuclear weapons. Pakistan collapsing from a spillover of violence from Afghanistan where its WMD fall into the hands of terrorists would be THE nightmare scenario for the United States. The US should take all necessary steps to ensure this does not happen.
This leads to the question of whether or not the mission is doable. With the time constraints that the Obama administration has put on the combat mission, I don't think that it is. The timetable was officially pushed forward in the last few months, from 2014 to the middle of 2013. Whether it is a little over a year or two years, the time span is simply not long enough to stabilize Afghanistan. With this year being an election year, the administration will not want bad news from the war to have any influence over the President's reelection chances. The administration's main priority is seeking to find the least-bad way out of a terrible situation.
Looks like some more tough luck for the Afghans for the indefinite future.
Sources:
Pakistan nightmare scenario
Obama sticks to his timetable
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