Thoughts on What Will Happen Between Now and November

Since this will be my final passion blog post for the class, I wanted to just write about my general thoughts concerning what I think will most likely happen between now and November, when the general election is set to take place.

Ultimately, I think that President Obama will be re-elected for another 4 more years in office. While his first term has certainly not been without speed-bumps, on the whole I think he has done as good a job as could be expected with the situation he was dealt when he entered office. He passed a major health-care overhaul (the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act), a lengthy financial regulation law (the Dodd-Frank Act), bailed out several major players in the financial and automotive industries (TARP), and ordered the mission that killed the world's most wanted terrorist (Osama Bin Laden). Under most circumstances, I think President Obama would be more of a shoo-in for a second term, but the economic recovery, the main concern of voters the past 4 years, has been tepid at best. Unemployment is lower than it has been in years, but 8.2% is still far too high. In my opinion, the President's inability to seriously tackle the nation's debt crisis and put the nation on a more sustainable fiscal path has been his biggest disappointment. Hopefully, if he is reelected, he will be able to have enough political capital to make the very hard and painful decisions that are sure to come with a reduction in spending, a rise in taxes, and a large restructuring of entitlements.

Former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney is very qualified to run for public office. As an executive in both the private and public sectors, he has the experience and management skills that he says will pull the nation out of its dire fiscal straits. Unfortunately for him, I don't think that the President has all that much power over how good or bad the economy does. I would think Ben Bernanke (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) has more direct power over it. Gov. Romney's solution of cutting spending to get the nation out of debt also strike's me as irresponsible, especially with the unemployment rate as high as it is. 

Santorum Bows Out

FINALLY!!! Mitt Romney has finally locked up the Republican nomination. Sure Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are still "officially" in the race, but lets be real-- this is finally a one man show. Well, more like two men, now that Barack Obama knows for sure who his challenger in the general election will be. This is absolutely the best news that has happened to Romney his entire campaign, and honestly something that should have happened a long time ago. Romney has always been the "safe" candidate, the one voters were OK with electing but not one that generated any sort of enthusiasm. Want proof? When was the last time you saw a "Romney 2012" bumper sticker? My first time was last week and it was on the back of a minivan with a huge "BYU" magnet and a cartoon family sticker that had 10 family members on it. Obviously, they were pumped about Mitt. Too bad for Mitt that the rest of the electorate doesn't wear magic underwear to bed.

Even before this campaign started, I never liked Santorum. I always felt he was a "holier-than-thou" demagogue who campaigned on social issues to get votes, while simultaneously screwing over the very people that elected him on economic issues. But you have to give credit where credit is due: Santorum ran a hell of a campaign. He was pronounced dead on arrival until the very last week before the Iowa caucuses, when his campaign peaked at exactly the right time. He faced many setbacks, such as when Romney won Florida and Newt Gingrich won South Carolina, but he still was able to persevere and seemed to make a real connection with rural and working-class voters in multiple states. His willingness to campaign the old-school way-- going from town to town and speaking to voters at small rally's showed that while technology can be a great tool for expanding a campaign, nothing can replace going out and speaking to voters face to face.

Source:

-Rick Santorum Suspends Campaign Video

Mitt-- Sealing The Deal

If you haven't been watching the news lately, it looks like Mitt Romney basically has the nomination locked up. Rick Santorum will have one final shot to pull off an upset in the Wisconsin primary, but the odds look heavily stacked against him. In the past week, a flurry of big names have come out to endorse Romney: former President George H.W. Bush, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, and Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson. Getting the former President's endorsement is certainly big news for the campaign, but the Ryan endorsement may be even more significant.

For those who don't know, Ryan is probably the most instrumental person in crafting the GOP's budget and economic policy. His latest budget, released last week, proposes massive cuts in Medicare and discretionary spending. While these types of draconian cuts certainly appeal to many doctrinaire primary voters, having Romney's name associated with this type of budget may prove fatal in the general election. While entitlement spending is certainly a very real issue, the fact remains that the American public strongly supports keeping programs like Social Security and Medicare intact (according to one poll, 74% of respondents said they would oppose cutting Social Security to reduce the federal deficit). 

President Obama will look to exploit this issue in the general election, and his re-election at this point looks to be in good shape. The Republican Party has pushed itself, and in particular, Mitt Romney, so far to the right that the nominee will have serious issues convincing voters that he is not a demagogue. Combine this with the appearance of Romney as a "flip-flopper" and his chances come election day look grim. 

The Republican Party looks to be in crisis mode, with a nominee they don't really like and ideological cracks (the libertarian Ron Paul says he is in the race until the bitter end, the "Tea Party" movement) possibly splitting the party in the future. Long gone are the days of Bush, Cheney, and Rove getting every  Republican in congress in line-- or else.

Source:

-Social Security Poll

Health Care

The big news this week is the Supreme Court debating the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as "Obamacare." The President's lawyers argue that the law is constitutional because the commerce clause of the constitution, which authorizes congress to regulate inter-state trade, gives congress the power to regulate the health care industry, which accounts for 18% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The much publicized "individual mandate" portion of the law will require most Americans to either purchase health insurance individually, or pay a penalty to cover the potential costs of not doing so. The President argues that not paying for insurance is "an economic decision to pay for your own health care," albeit one that is mostly covered by the federal government. Opponents of the law, such as groups that represent big business, libertarian organizations, and 13 U.S. states, argue that the Federal government has no constitutional right to force American's to buy health insurance. They contend that, while the commerce clause explicitly authorizes the government to regulate economic activity between the states, congress has no right to regulate economic inactivity.

Other arguments that are being heard by the court concern the "severability" of the individual mandate from the rest of the (gargantuan!) 2,700 page law, and whether or not the government's proposed expansion of Medicaid is "unduly coercive."

I think it goes without saying which side the President is on regarding "Obamacare." The Republican candidates all strongly oppose the law. Both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum say that on their "first day" in office they will issue an executive order to "repeal Obamacare." Ron Paul, a licensed gynecologist, insits that doctor's have an "implicit right", because of their Hippocratic Oath, to provide free health care for those in need. While I certainly respect Dr. Paul's opinion that health care should be a "charitable benefit provided by doctor's," I clearly don't have as much faith in people being that good to others all the time.

In my view, the individual mandate is extremely hard to defend on constitutional grounds. Yesterday, Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy asked "Can you create commerce in order to regulate it?" That question rings true, and as much as I would like a much improved health care system with greater amounts of coverage, I don't think the government really as a good answer for that question. That being said, I hope that the court doesn't strike down the entire law. Expanding Medicare and raising the age eligibility to be on a parent's health plan until they are 26 are both worthy changes that could help plenty of people out, especially in this rough economy.


Sources:

-The Economist's guide to the health care case
-Rick Santorum Campaign website
-Mitt Romney Campaign website
-Ron Paul Campaign website 

Bad Days In The 'Stan

Usually I write about the comic nature and the ridiculousness of the presidential campaign, but this week the biggest political news took a sobering turn, when a rogue soldier apparently murdered 16 civilians in the southern province of Kandahar. While it is inappropriate to judge whether the accused soldier did in fact murder and burn so many civilians(thats for the military justice system to decide), it is appropriate to ask whether or not the mission is 1.) Worth it, and 2.) doable.

While I still believe that the mission is worth it, the seemingly endless mistakes by the NATO-led coalition make a difficult situation even more complex. I believe staying in Afghanistan until there can be a steady and methodical transition to Afghan forces is the best way to ensure regional stability. If the United States were to pack up and leave tomorrow, Afghanistan would collapse and the bloodletting between the warlords in the country would be extreme. This would not bode well for the extremely unstable state of Pakistan, which is reputed to have over 100 nuclear weapons. Pakistan collapsing from a spillover of violence from Afghanistan where its WMD fall into the hands of terrorists would be THE nightmare scenario for the United States. The US should take all necessary steps to ensure this does not happen.

This leads to the question of whether or not the mission is doable. With the time constraints that the Obama administration has put on the combat mission, I don't think that it is. The timetable was officially pushed forward in the last few months, from 2014 to the middle of 2013. Whether it is a little over a year or two years, the time span is simply not long enough to stabilize Afghanistan. With this year being an election year, the administration will not want bad news from the war to have any influence over the President's reelection chances. The administration's main priority is seeking to find the least-bad way out of a terrible situation.

 Looks like some more tough luck for the Afghans for the indefinite future.

Sources:

Pakistan nightmare scenario
Obama sticks to his timetable

Same Old, Same Old...

New week, same old story. Over our spring break "Super Tuesday", consisting of Republican primary elections in 10 states, took place. Once again, Mitt Romney seems incapable of "sealing the deal." To be sure, Romney took over half the delegates that were available that day, but Rick Santorum--and to a lesser extent, Newt Gingrich-- seem to be gaining just enough momentum to prevent Romney from locking up the nomination. Ron Paul, too, has vowed to take his candidacy all the way to Florida, when the Republican National Convention is to be taking place in Tampa during late August. The Republican establishment seems to be frustrated, with John McCain, the party's 2008 nominee, expressing concern over the electoral chances of the eventual nominee against President Obama.

But the race may soon narrow to a virtually two man field, with Ron Paul running a distant third place. Although Newt Gingrich has vowed to stay in the race regardless of what happens in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, outside observers are less confident. The Alabama Republican Party chairman stated that Gingrich "must win both states to stay in the race." With Gingrich potentially dropping out, Romney and Santorum could potentially take the race down to the wire. 

All of these developments bode well for President Obama's reelection campaign. With the Republicans divided and with no candidate separating himself, the President will be able to continue fundraising while the GOP tears itself apart. 

All along, the Romney campaign has been built purely for the general election. What we are witnessing is a battle for control of the Republican party. The establishment, for many years, has been used to a quick and decisive primary season with a prospective nominee fully established many months before the convention. With the rise of "Tea Party", a much more anti-government, anti-establishment wing of the party is fighting to take control of the GOP, one where purity is favored over pragmatism. Either way, I feel that the eventual nominee is doomed to be handily defeated come November.

Sources:

-CBS News article on Newt Gingrich vowing to stay in the race
-John McCain on Romney being unable to lock up the nomination

Rick Doesn't Like Skool

As mentioned in last week's post, Rick Santorum is neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney in the polls in Michigan and Arizona, and with that comes added media attention. That's why the comment that he "almost threw up" after reading President John Kennedy's speech about the separation of church and state from way back in October came back into the headlines, as well as his comment that President Obama is a "snob" because "he wants everyone in America to go to college."

The "snob" comment is especially curious, considering that Santorum himself hold a Bachelor's degree, M.B.A., and J.D, and by his own admission encourages his own children to go to college. Santorum also misconstrued the President's words about "higher education" to mean only "college." President Obama clearly was also talking about getting more Americans to attend community colleges, trade schools, and vocational institutions, as well as helping those to obtain a four-year degree from a university. Santorum then took his argument into demagogue territory by saying that people don't need "some liberal college professor trying to indoctrinate them," and that the President wants people to attend college to "remake" them "in his image."

While I think that what Santorum said was purely to score political points from the "Tea Party" faction of the Republican Party, I can only view his comments as hypocritical and disgraceful. Many families, including my own, view higher education as the key to social mobility. In this globalized economy, having something beyond a high school diploma is virtually a prerequisite for getting a decent, well paying job. Statistics don't lie: for those who have less than a high school diploma, unemployment is 15%, those with a high school degree--9.5%, with an associates degree--7.5%,  while those who have a Bachelor's degree or higher are only 4.4% unemployed. Why aren't these numbers mentioned more on the campaign trail? Why is it that no candidate, Barack Obama included, has explicitly tied education with employment? Probably because, in this day and age, people want to be instantly gratified. 7,000 high school students drop out of high school every day in America. Getting an education is, and should be, hard. If most Americans won't make the connection, why should their politicians?

Santorum said some incredibly ignorant stuff when he was talking to that "Tea Party" group, but his statement that "not all folks are gifted in the same way," is absolutely true. Not everyone should go to college. I know plenty of people who have no business being on campus. That's OK. But absolutely everyone should have the chance to obtain a higher education--college, trade school, community college--regardless of their standing in life.

Sources:

-Article About High School Dropout Rate
-Unemployment Statistics By Educational Attainment
-Obama Comments on Higher Education
-Washington Post Article on Rick Santorum "Snob" Comments