Thoughts on What Will Happen Between Now and November

Since this will be my final passion blog post for the class, I wanted to just write about my general thoughts concerning what I think will most likely happen between now and November, when the general election is set to take place.

Ultimately, I think that President Obama will be re-elected for another 4 more years in office. While his first term has certainly not been without speed-bumps, on the whole I think he has done as good a job as could be expected with the situation he was dealt when he entered office. He passed a major health-care overhaul (the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act), a lengthy financial regulation law (the Dodd-Frank Act), bailed out several major players in the financial and automotive industries (TARP), and ordered the mission that killed the world's most wanted terrorist (Osama Bin Laden). Under most circumstances, I think President Obama would be more of a shoo-in for a second term, but the economic recovery, the main concern of voters the past 4 years, has been tepid at best. Unemployment is lower than it has been in years, but 8.2% is still far too high. In my opinion, the President's inability to seriously tackle the nation's debt crisis and put the nation on a more sustainable fiscal path has been his biggest disappointment. Hopefully, if he is reelected, he will be able to have enough political capital to make the very hard and painful decisions that are sure to come with a reduction in spending, a rise in taxes, and a large restructuring of entitlements.

Former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney is very qualified to run for public office. As an executive in both the private and public sectors, he has the experience and management skills that he says will pull the nation out of its dire fiscal straits. Unfortunately for him, I don't think that the President has all that much power over how good or bad the economy does. I would think Ben Bernanke (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) has more direct power over it. Gov. Romney's solution of cutting spending to get the nation out of debt also strike's me as irresponsible, especially with the unemployment rate as high as it is. 

Santorum Bows Out

FINALLY!!! Mitt Romney has finally locked up the Republican nomination. Sure Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are still "officially" in the race, but lets be real-- this is finally a one man show. Well, more like two men, now that Barack Obama knows for sure who his challenger in the general election will be. This is absolutely the best news that has happened to Romney his entire campaign, and honestly something that should have happened a long time ago. Romney has always been the "safe" candidate, the one voters were OK with electing but not one that generated any sort of enthusiasm. Want proof? When was the last time you saw a "Romney 2012" bumper sticker? My first time was last week and it was on the back of a minivan with a huge "BYU" magnet and a cartoon family sticker that had 10 family members on it. Obviously, they were pumped about Mitt. Too bad for Mitt that the rest of the electorate doesn't wear magic underwear to bed.

Even before this campaign started, I never liked Santorum. I always felt he was a "holier-than-thou" demagogue who campaigned on social issues to get votes, while simultaneously screwing over the very people that elected him on economic issues. But you have to give credit where credit is due: Santorum ran a hell of a campaign. He was pronounced dead on arrival until the very last week before the Iowa caucuses, when his campaign peaked at exactly the right time. He faced many setbacks, such as when Romney won Florida and Newt Gingrich won South Carolina, but he still was able to persevere and seemed to make a real connection with rural and working-class voters in multiple states. His willingness to campaign the old-school way-- going from town to town and speaking to voters at small rally's showed that while technology can be a great tool for expanding a campaign, nothing can replace going out and speaking to voters face to face.

Source:

-Rick Santorum Suspends Campaign Video

Mitt-- Sealing The Deal

If you haven't been watching the news lately, it looks like Mitt Romney basically has the nomination locked up. Rick Santorum will have one final shot to pull off an upset in the Wisconsin primary, but the odds look heavily stacked against him. In the past week, a flurry of big names have come out to endorse Romney: former President George H.W. Bush, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, and Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson. Getting the former President's endorsement is certainly big news for the campaign, but the Ryan endorsement may be even more significant.

For those who don't know, Ryan is probably the most instrumental person in crafting the GOP's budget and economic policy. His latest budget, released last week, proposes massive cuts in Medicare and discretionary spending. While these types of draconian cuts certainly appeal to many doctrinaire primary voters, having Romney's name associated with this type of budget may prove fatal in the general election. While entitlement spending is certainly a very real issue, the fact remains that the American public strongly supports keeping programs like Social Security and Medicare intact (according to one poll, 74% of respondents said they would oppose cutting Social Security to reduce the federal deficit). 

President Obama will look to exploit this issue in the general election, and his re-election at this point looks to be in good shape. The Republican Party has pushed itself, and in particular, Mitt Romney, so far to the right that the nominee will have serious issues convincing voters that he is not a demagogue. Combine this with the appearance of Romney as a "flip-flopper" and his chances come election day look grim. 

The Republican Party looks to be in crisis mode, with a nominee they don't really like and ideological cracks (the libertarian Ron Paul says he is in the race until the bitter end, the "Tea Party" movement) possibly splitting the party in the future. Long gone are the days of Bush, Cheney, and Rove getting every  Republican in congress in line-- or else.

Source:

-Social Security Poll